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Night temperatures may dip over South as winds begin to stray

bl23-3dasiasec_ir1_3107637fThe stretch of sea extending from Sumatra/Gulf of Thailand to Sri Lanka/south Tamil Nadu across the south Bay of Bengal will stay ‘busy’ through the year-end and into the New Year, according to global forecasts.

But the rains will be mostly directed to the south-west towards Sri Lanka, as is what happens towards the end of the North-East monsoon.

Some of the spill-off rain might shower down briefly over south Tamil Nadu next week.

Spill-over impact

South Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala could expect to receive showers from a rain wave hitting Sri Lanka from December 28-30, says an India Met Department (IMD) outlook.

The wind field might shift from north-easterly to southerly across the peninsula for a few days, which might bring in some of the cold air right from North India, leading to a dip in mercury.

Meanwhile, rain deficit for the South during the penultimate week of the season stays at 60 per cent, after rains kept away from the region largely due to unfavourable conditions developing in the Indian Ocean.

Abnormal warming of the eastern basin of the Indian Ocean (to the south of Bay of Bengal) led to trapping of moisture — otherwise bound for South India where it would have fallen as rain.

Rains blown away

Two of the three cyclones — Kyant, Nada and Vardah — were poorly directed and emptied their moisture into the seas.

The very severe cyclone ‘Vardah’ held on briefly over land raining it down mostly over interior Tamil Nadu.

But it hardly made an impression on the legacy of the huge deficit built up through October and November, clocking in at 62 per cent for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry until Wednesday (December 21).

Interestingly, global models have been forecasting ‘normal’ rains for the South Peninsula during December-January-February.

This would require that January and February turn in a better record compared to the ‘low normals’ which they are normally associated with.

Rainfall has been deficient for the country as a whole (at 43 per cent) thus far during this winter with North-West India recording the worst deficit at 69 per cent.

West Rajasthan topped the Met subdivisions with a deficit of as high as 108 per cent, followed by Himachal Pradesh (94 per cent); Punjab (93 per cent); and Jammu & Kashmir (92 per cent).

Courtesy – The Hindu

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